Oak View, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

195
FXUS66 KLOX 120301
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
801 PM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...11/311 AM.

High pressure aloft lingering across the region will keep a hot
weather pattern across many valley, mountain, and desert
locations into Tuesday. With exception along the coast where
persistent onshore flow and a marine layer will keep temperatures
cooler, temperatures will remain above seasonal normals through
midweek. Areas of night through morning low clouds and fog will
continue along the coast and into some coastal valleys through the
period. A cooling trend will develop between Wednesday and
Saturday as an upper-level trough approaches the West Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...11/759 PM.

***UPDATE***

The marine inversion early this evening was near 1000 ft deep at
LAX and near 1300 ft deep at VBG. Low clouds were along portions
of the Central Coast early this evening and will expand and spread
inland some overnight, along with some fog, possibly dense at
times. S of Point Conception, some low clouds were along the L.A.
County coast early this evening. The low clouds are expected to
expand over the coastal waters and along the coast overnight and
move inland over the coastal plain. Fog will develop with the low
clouds, and patchy dense fog cannot be ruled out as well.
Otherwise and elsewhere, mostly clear skies will prevail thru the
night, except for smokey conditions at times for portions of SLO
and SBA Counties due to the Gifford Fire.

Breezy to gusty S to W winds continued early this evening for
many areas. These winds will diminish overnight. However, decent
northerly gradients this evening (e.g. -3.6 mb SBA-SMX at 02Z)
were helping to bring some strong and gusty NW-N canyon winds to
portions of southern SBA County. Gusts up to 45 mph have been
observed at the Gaviota RAWS and 43 MPH at the Refugio RAWS. A
Wind Advisory is in effect for SW SBA County overnight. Gusty NW
winds possibly to near Advisory levels are expected over the I-5
Corridor in NW L.A. County this evening as well.

***From Previous Discussion***

High confidence moderate to high heat risk across interior areas
through Tuesday with no changes to associated heat advisories and
warnings in place. When possible avoid outdoor activities during
the heat of the day, especially if vulnerable to heat impacts. If
exposed to the heat, hydrate often and take breaks in air
conditioning or shade. Smoke from wildfires in the region may
exacerbate impacts from the heat.

Low clouds and fog will continue to be limited mainly to coastal
areas and night to morning hours through Tuesday with patchy dense
fog still in play. There is about a 20 percent chance that a
strong enough eddy will form to nudge low clouds and fog into some
coastal valleys in Los Angeles County in particular. If this
occurs, Tuesday high temperatures would be 5-10 degrees cooler
than forecast for coastal valleys of Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties.

We have high confidence in a significant and prolonged cooling
trend starting in earnest Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure
breaking down will bring the start of the end of the heat and also
bring increased winds with continued dry conditions. Elevated
fire weather conditions continue away from the coast through
Thursday and especially Wednesday. Wind gusts will generally peak
25-40 mph in the mountains near the I-5 corridor to western
Antelope Valley and Southwest Santa Barbara County, but
potentially 5-10 mph stronger Wednesday. Marginal wind advisories
may be needed for these areas at times through Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...11/153 PM.

Above normal confidence in a strong onshore pattern (for August),
supporting below normal temperatures and breezy conditions
focused to the interior and southwest Santa Barbara County. A
deepening marine layer may bring night to morning low clouds back
into at least most coastal valleys.

A ridge building in from the east may bring at least moderate heat
impacts back to the region for the early to middle part of next
week, focused away from the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...11/2334Z.

At 2248Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3800 ft with a temperature of 28 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs at KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Arrival/departure times of
CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off by 2 hours, with flight cat mins
off by one category.

There is a 30% chance of IFR Conds at KBUR & KVNY from 10Z to 16Z
Tue due to likely strengthening Catalina Eddy overnight. Low
confidence in potential CIG height, may be off by one category if
arrives.

Vis reduction due to FU from Gifford Fire possible at times for
KSBP, KSMX, KSBA, & KPRB.

KLAX...Moderate to low confidence in 00Z TAF. CIGs may be
intermittent through 06Z, or arrive as early as 01Z or 02Z.
Moderate confidence thereafter with IFR CIGs 005-009 likely.
There is a 20% chance for an east wind component reaching 7 kts
between 10Z and 17Z Tue.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for IFR
CIGs between 10Z and 16Z. Low confidence in potential CIG height,
may be off by one category if arrives.

&&

.MARINE...11/123 PM.

High confidence in seasonal NW winds across the Outer Water and
Inner Waters along the Central Coast, with 40-70% chance of
reaching Small Craft Advisory (SCA) in the afternoon through late
night hours each day through the week. Highest confidence in the
Outer Waters, especially Wednesday and beyond.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in SCA level wind gusts in the western portion of the
Santa Barbara Channel in the afternoon and evenings through
the week, then there is a 50-60% chance for winds to increase to
SCA levels in the eastern portion of the zone Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise and elsewhere,
conditions will remain below SCA levels through the week.

In addition, night to morning dense fog may continue at times
into Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 38-351>353-376>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until midnight PDT tonight for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/Sirard
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox